Montana forecast unchanged as new poll keeps Alme in the lead

A Peak Insights survey of 600 likely voters in Montana, fielded August 23-25, puts Republican Kurt Alme at 44 percent, independent Seth Bodnar at 22 percent, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 19 percent and other candidates at 2 percent.

Our forecast is where it was. The model gives the Republican a 99 percent chance in this open seat and the Democrat 1 in 100, with a mean margin of R+13.5 and a 5th-to-95th-percentile range running from R+23.7 to R+3.4. Those are the same figures our previous run produced earlier today. The new poll is consistent with the distribution the model was already drawing from, so it changed the inputs without changing the output.

The detail worth marking is the shape of the field rather than the topline. In the Peak Insights numbers, Bodnar sits three points above Bankhead, meaning the Democrat runs third. Our race probabilities are stated as Democratic and Republican win chances, and on that basis the Republican side of the ledger is close to settled in our simulations.

Nationally, our average of 24 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.1. Our model gives Democrats a 42 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 57 percent; Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our mean Democratic seat count is 49.8. In the House, we put the Democratic chance of a majority at 93 percent with a mean of 239 seats, though that figure is marginally firmer than it should be: our error model correlates districts nationally, by census division, by state and individually, and we lack the data to add a term linking demographically similar districts across the map.