New Montana poll shows Alme ahead in a three-way field, forecast unmoved

A Hart Research Associates survey of 800 likely voters for Forward Montana, fielded August 1-4, put Republican Kurt Alme at 45 percent in the three-way race for Montana's open Senate seat, independent Seth Bodnar at 30 percent, Democrat Alani Bankhead at 15 percent and other candidates at 6 percent.

The same poll tested two head-to-head matchups. Against Bankhead alone, Alme led 52 percent to 38 percent. Against Bodnar alone, the two tied at 46 percent each.

Nothing in our numbers moved. Our model gives Bankhead a 2 in 100 chance and Alme a 98 percent chance, with a mean margin of R+13.3 and a 5th-to-95th-percentile range running from R+23.8 to R+2.9. That is the same central margin and the same probabilities as our previous run, published earlier the same afternoon. The forecast's win probabilities are stated for the Republican and the Democrat; the mean margin is a Republican-over-Democrat figure.

The new poll is consistent with what was already in the average on the three-way question. Hart's June 18-24 survey for The Majority Institute, also 800 likely voters, had Alme at 47 percent, Bodnar at 25 and Bankhead at 22. GQR's July 23-26 poll of 500 likely voters for Contours Inc. had Alme at 41, Bodnar at 27 and Bankhead at 22. A Bullfinch Group survey of 793 likely voters for the Independent Center, fielded July 13-16, was closer, at Alme 36, Bodnar 24, Bankhead 22.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 50 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to their side. Montana is not among the seats our model expects Democrats to win.