AARP poll finds a close Maine Senate race as Jackson's chance holds near 60 percent

A new Maine Senate poll shows a close race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson. The survey of 982 likely voters, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP and fielded September 20-22, found Jackson at 50% and Collins at 47%. That three-point gap is small enough that the poll is best read as showing a competitive contest rather than a clear advantage for either candidate.

The poll confirmed what our model already showed rather than changing it. Our model now gives Jackson a 60 in 100 chance of winning, up from 59% in the run completed an hour earlier. Collins's chance moved from 41% to 40%. Our projected margin moved from D+1.3 to D+1.4.

The range of plausible outcomes remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+7.8 to D+10.6, nearly unchanged from R+7.8 to D+10.5 in the previous run. A margin near the middle of that range, as this poll and our average both suggest, leaves either candidate with a realistic path.

Maine is one of the races that shapes the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning Senate control and puts their expected seat count at 50.6. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.