Wedgewood poll shows a close Maine Senate race; Jackson's chance ticks up to 62 percent

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 27 to October 1, finds Democrat Troy Jackson at 52 percent and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 48 percent. A four-point gap in a sample that small is within ordinary sampling error. The poll describes a close race, not a clear Jackson lead.

Our model now gives Jackson a 62 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 60 percent in the run an hour earlier. Collins's chance is 38 percent. Our projected margin moved from D+1.5 to D+1.7. The shift is small and points in the same direction as the poll, but it does not change the shape of the race.

The spread of plausible outcomes remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from Collins by 7.5 points to Jackson by 10.9, little changed from R+7.7 to D+10.7 before this poll. A Collins win sits comfortably inside that range.

Maine matters to the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 52 percent chance of winning Senate control, against 47 percent for Republicans. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 50.5 Democratic seats, short of that bar, which is why a single competitive seat like this one carries weight in the overall estimate.