Maine tightens again as forecast slips to 61 percent for Jackson

Two new YouGov surveys of Maine, both fielded September 2-8, show a close contest between Republican Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson. Among 1,335 likely voters, Jackson takes 48 percent to Collins's 44 percent. Among 1,378 registered voters from the same field period, Jackson leads 46 percent to 44 percent. Neither poll comes with a margin of error in our payload, and both gaps are small enough that the race reads as close rather than settled.

Our model now gives Jackson a 61 in 100 chance, with a mean margin of D+1.7 and a 5th-to-95th-percentile range running from R+8.4 to D+11.8. That is a move from the run earlier this morning, which had Jackson at 83 percent, a mean margin of D+5.7 and a range of R+4.4 to D+15.9. The new numbers did change something: they continue a narrowing this site has already tracked, and they widen the downside tail rather than simply shaving the top line.

The direction is familiar; the size of the step is not. Our published estimate for Jackson has come down from 90 percent in late August to 84, then 81, and now 61. Two surveys from the same pollster in the same field window carry less independent information than two surveys from different houses, so the model's response here reflects agreement between two closely related readings rather than a broad shift across pollsters.

Maine sits inside a Senate picture our model still rates as more favorable to Republicans. We give Democrats a 39 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 60 percent, with a mean of 49.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our national generic-ballot average stands at D+6.3 across 24 polls in the last 45 days.