Trafalgar poll finds a close Kansas Senate race, and our Hamilton odds stay put
A survey with Hamilton nominally ahead by less than a point left our model's estimate of the margin unchanged at R+4.8.
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 2, 2026 at 6:02 PM EDT
A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,095 likely voters, fielded September 29 to October 1, found Democrat Adam Hamilton at 44.4 percent and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 43.5 percent, with 2 percent choosing another option. A gap that small is not a lead. The poll shows a close race.
Our forecast did not move. Our model gives Hamilton a 19 in 100 chance of winning, the same as in our run at 4:32 PM ET today. Marshall's chance is 81 percent. Our model's average expected margin remains R+4.8, with a 5th-to-95th percentile range from R+14.0 to D+4.4.
The Trafalgar result falls inside that range, toward the Democratic end. One more close poll was not enough to shift the model's estimate. Our model weighs it alongside other information, and the combined picture still favors Marshall.
The race matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 53 percent chance of winning Senate control and puts their average at 50.6 seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Trafalgar Group · Oct 1, 2026 · n=1,095 · Kansas Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.
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