Kansas poll has Marshall at 49, and our Hamilton odds double to 11 in 100

A co/efficient survey of 915 likely voters in Kansas, fielded September 8-10, puts Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 49 percent and Democrat Adam Hamilton at 44 percent, with 2 percent for other candidates.

Our model now gives Hamilton an 11 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with Marshall at 89 percent. Our mean projected margin is R+7.7, and the 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+17.7 to D+2.4. That is a move toward Hamilton from our previous run, earlier on September 11, which had him at 5 percent, a mean margin of R+10.3, and a range that stopped just short of a Democratic win at R+0.3.

So the new number did change something. We published a note on September 8 describing our odds as tightening toward Marshall; the co/efficient poll has pushed the estimate the other way, and the top of our range now crosses into Democratic territory for the first time in this sequence of runs. It has not changed the direction of the race. Marshall remains the favorite in our model by a wide margin, and the single-digit gap in the poll is consistent with an outcome our range already covered.

Nationally, our generic-ballot average sits at D+6.7 across 24 polls in a 45-day window. Our Senate forecast is close to even: Democrats have a 50 percent chance of winning control, Republicans 49 percent, with a mean of 50.3 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. On that arithmetic, a Kansas seat our model rates as an 11 percent Democratic chance is not central to the national picture, but it is one of the paths.