Sponsored Kansas poll shows a close race, and our Hamilton odds hold at 19 percent

A Global Strategy Group survey of 800 likely voters in Kansas, fielded September 13-16 and sponsored by the Democratic Attorneys General Association, puts Democrat Adam Hamilton at 49 percent and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 47 percent in a two-way question. That gap is small enough that the race is best described as close.

The same survey also asked a version that offered an alternative. There, Hamilton had 47 percent, Marshall 43 percent and other options 5 percent.

The poll did not change our forecast. Our model gives Hamilton a 19 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in our run earlier this morning, and gives Marshall 81 percent. Our estimated mean margin moved from R+4.8 to R+4.9. The range of outcomes our model considers plausible, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, still runs from R+14.0 to D+4.3. Hamilton's chances in our model now stand below the 28 percent we reported on September 29.

The survey is a sponsored poll, and its field dates end more than two weeks before today. It shows a closer race than our average, but it adds one more data point to a picture our model had already absorbed rather than redrawing it.

Kansas matters for the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning Senate control, with a mean of 50.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, since a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans through the vice president.