A co/efficient poll has Honeycutt at 46 percent in SC-1, and our forecast barely moves

A co/efficient survey of 837 likely voters in South Carolina's 1st District, fielded September 30 to October 1, has Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt at 46 percent and Democrat Nancy Lacore at 40 percent. Another 4 percent chose another option.

Our model now gives Lacore a 28 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Honeycutt a 72 percent chance. Before this poll, in a run from 2:32 PM ET today, our model had Lacore at 25 percent and Honeycutt at 75 percent. Our projected margin moved from R+5.9 to R+5.0. The poll's six-point margin sits close to what our model already expected, so the shift is small and confirms the shape of the race rather than changing it.

The range of outcomes remains wide. Our model's 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+19.1 to D+9.1, compared with R+20.0 to D+8.2 before the update. Neither candidate is an incumbent.

The national picture is more lopsided than this district. Our generic ballot average, built from 30 polls over 45 days, stands at D+8.1. Our model gives Democrats a 98 percent chance of winning a House majority, which takes 218 seats, with a mean of 245.1 Democratic seats. That figure is slightly more confident than it should be: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it does not link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so.

The election is 32 days away.