New MI-10 poll shows a tie, and our forecast barely moves

A Global Strategy Group survey of 600 likely voters in Michigan's 10th District, fielded August 10-13, put Republican Michael Bouchard Jr. and Democrat Christina Hines at 45 percent each.

Our forecast now gives Hines a 61 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+2.7. That is a small move from our previous run, at 2:30 PM ET on August 31, which had her at 63 percent and D+3.2. The tied poll is close enough to our existing read of the race that it mostly confirms what was already in the model rather than redirecting it.

The spread around that mean remains wide. Our simulations put the 5th-to-95th percentile range at R+13.4 to D+19.2, so outcomes from a clear Republican win to a comfortable Democratic one are all inside the model's normal range with 64 days left.

Nationally, our average of 22 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.7. Our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for House control, with a mean of 241 Democratic seats. One caveat on that figure is ours: the simulation draws correlated error at the national, census-division, state and district levels, but we have no cluster data to correlate demographically similar districts across regions, so the House control number is marginally firmer than a fuller treatment would leave it.

The Senate is closer. Our model gives Democrats a 51 percent chance of the 51 seats they would need for control, against 49 percent for Republicans, who need 50 because a 50-50 tie goes to them on the vice president's vote. The mean Democratic seat count is 50.3.