Tulchin poll finds a two-point race in ME-2; our forecast barely moves

A Tulchin Research survey of 500 likely voters in Maine's 2nd District, fielded September 27-30, puts Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 50% and Republican Paul LePage at 48%. A two-point gap in a sample that size is a close race, not a lead.

The poll moved our forecast only slightly. Our model now gives Dunlap an 88 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 89% in the run published earlier this morning. Our projected margin is unchanged at D+10.3. The range of plausible outcomes shifted a few tenths toward LePage: our 5th-to-95th percentile band now runs from R+3.9 to D+24.3, compared with R+3.7 to D+24.5 before.

The new survey's margin sits inside that band but well toward its Republican end. It nudged our estimate rather than reset it because a single poll is one input among several, and our model weighs it against the rest of the evidence on the district and the national environment. Our average of 30 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+8.1.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, which requires 218 seats; our average outcome is 245.1 Democratic seats. That figure is somewhat firmer than it would be under a fuller error model. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it does not yet link demographically similar districts in different regions, because we lack the data to do so.

The Maine race is 32 days from the November 3 election.