Partisan poll in ME-2 shows a tie; our forecast does not move

A new poll of Maine's 2nd District has the race even. Impact Research, polling for House Majority PAC, surveyed 500 likely voters September 8-12 and found Republican Paul LePage at 49 percent and Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 49 percent.

Our forecast did not change. As of 4:02 PM ET on September 15, our model gives Dunlap an 86 in 100 chance of winning the seat and LePage 14 percent, with a mean margin of D+10.0 and a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from R+5.2 to D+25.2. Those are the same figures the model produced in its previous run at 2:32 PM ET. A single poll of 500 voters, sponsored by a party-aligned group, moves little against the district's fundamentals and the national environment in the model.

That environment still leans Democratic. Our generic-ballot average sits at D+6.8 across 24 polls over the past 45 days. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 95 in 100 chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for control, with a mean of 241.1 Democratic seats. One caveat is ours to own: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it has no term linking demographically similar districts in different places. Without that, the 95 percent figure is marginally firmer than a fuller model would make it. How much firmer is not measured in this run.

The Senate is the closer question. Our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of control there and Republicans 52 percent, with a mean of 50.1 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes their way.

Forty-nine days remain before the November 3 election. The Impact Research poll is consistent with a close contest in ME-2 at the low end of our range, not with the center of it.