A September Alaska poll shows Begich ahead, and our forecast for Hill holds steady

A survey by The Bullfinch Group, sponsored by the Independent Leadership Council, did not change our forecast for Alaska's at-large House seat. Our model gives Bill Hill, the independent, a 67 in 100 chance of winning, against 33% for Nick Begich III, the Republican incumbent. Those figures match our previous run, from 9:02 AM ET today. The Democratic chance stays at 0%.

The survey of 820 likely voters, fielded September 1-6, asked two ballot questions. In the version with every option listed, Begich drew 44.2%, Hill 36.6%, a Democrat 7.4% and other candidates 1.9%. In a two-way question put to the same sample, Begich drew 50.3% and Hill 46.5%. That head-to-head is close.

The two results come from one set of interviews, so they count as one survey with two readings rather than two independent data points. The gap between them is the notable finding. Begich's edge over Hill in the multi-candidate question shrinks in the two-way question, where Hill picks up nearly 10 points and Begich about six.

The poll is also not new information about the state of the race this week. Its field dates end September 6, and it puts Begich ahead, as other recent polling we have covered has done. Our model already accounted for polls of that kind and still projected a mean margin of I+3.7.

Our model's range of outcomes stays wide. The 5th to 95th percentile runs from R+10.4 to I+17.8, which includes a comfortable Begich win as well as a comfortable Hill win. With 32 days until the election on November 3, the forecast for this seat is where it was this morning.