Begich leads the newest Alaska poll, but our model still favors Hill

The newest survey of Alaska's at-large district has Republican Rep. Nick Begich III at 50.6 percent, independent Bill Hill at 39.1 percent and the Democratic line at 4.6 percent. That is Alaska Survey Research, which polled 1,872 likely voters August 20-23.

The same pollster's earlier survey of 1,371 likely voters, fielded August 2-5, had Begich at 50.4 percent and Hill at 34.4 percent, with the Democratic line at 15.2 percent. Between the two fields, Begich is flat, Hill is up and the Democratic share is down by roughly two-thirds. Earlier in the year, a Tavern Research poll of 452 likely voters for Contours Inc., fielded May 18-27, tested Begich against Hill head to head and found 52 to 48.

Our forecast moved after the new numbers, and it moved toward Hill rather than the candidate leading the poll. The model now gives Begich a 25 percent chance and Hill a 75 percent chance, with the Democratic line at 0 in 100. The previous run, from earlier the same afternoon, had Begich at 33 percent and Hill at 67 percent. Our mean margin is Hill by 6.7 points, out from Hill by 4.3. The spread remains wide: our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from Begich by 9.5 to Hill by 22.9, which is another way of saying this race is not settled.

At the national level, our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of a House majority, with a mean of 240.1 seats against the 218 needed, and our generic-ballot average sits at D+6.5 across 28 polls. One caveat is ours to own: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but we have no cluster data to correlate demographically similar districts wherever they sit. That makes the House control figure marginally firmer than a fuller model would report.