New Alaska Survey Research polls put Begich ahead, and our AK-1 forecast moves

Two new ballot tests from Alaska Survey Research favor Republican Nick Begich III. Both come from the same survey of 1,512 likely voters, fielded October 1-3. Our forecast for Alaska's House race moved in his direction after they were added.

In the four-way question, Begich leads with 49.8%. Independent Bill Hill has 39.9%, Democrat Eric Hafner has 6.9% and 3.4% chose another option. The second question tested Begich against Hill alone. In that matchup the same survey has Begich at 52.7% and Hill at 47.3%. That is closer than the four-way result, and it is a close race on those numbers.

Our model now gives Hafner a 0 in 100 chance and Begich a 100% chance. In our 5:02 PM ET run earlier today, the split was 75% Begich and 25% Democratic. Our average margin moved from R+5.5 to R+25.6. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range moved from R+19.2 to D+8.0 to R+39.2 to R+12.0. The earlier range included a Democratic-side margin. The new one does not.

This survey moves the forecast. It does not simply confirm it. A model output of 100% is our estimate of a chance, not a result, with 25 days left before the November 3 election.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 99% chance of winning a House majority of at least 218 seats, with an average of 245.8 Democratic seats. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district. It does not yet link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data for that. As a result, the House figure is marginally firmer than it would be with that term included.