Democrats hold a 93 in 100 House chance as Senate stays with Republicans at 56%

Our model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of winning a House majority this morning and Republicans 6 percent, with a mean of 241.1 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for control. In the Senate the split runs the other way: Republicans 56 percent, Democrats 44 in 100, on a mean of 49.9 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.6, drawn from 24 polls fielded inside the last 45 days.

One caveat on the House figure is ours to own. The simulation draws correlated error at four levels — national, census division, state, and each district on its own. It does not include a term linking demographically similar districts in different places, because we have no cluster data for this run. That missing layer means the 93 percent is marginally firmer than a fuller error model would make it. How much firmer is not measured here, so we are not putting a number on it.

The largest movement over the past day came in AK-1, where our estimate of the Democratic chance fell from 74 percent to essentially zero. TX-15 moved the other way, from 36 percent to 55 percent, the biggest gain for a Democrat anywhere on the board. Ohio's Senate race moved from 60 percent to 47 percent Democratic, and OH-7 from 64 percent to 54 percent. Maine's Senate race rose from 81 percent to 90 percent for the Democrat, while Alaska's Senate seat eased from 30 percent to 22 percent.

The TX-15 shift follows a Public Policy Research/Texas Southern University survey of 700 likely voters, fielded August 18-22, that had Democrat Bobby Pulido at 50 percent and Republican Monica De La Cruz at 45 percent. The same pollster's Texas polling covered two neighbouring seats over the same dates. In TX-34, a 700-voter sample had Democrat Vicente Gonzalez at 45 percent and Republican Eric Flores at 42 percent, a close race. In TX-28, a 600-voter sample had Democrat Henry Cuellar at 45 percent and Republican Tano Tijerina at 34 percent.

In Iowa, a Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters fielded August 20-23 put Republican Ashley Hinson at 45 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 41 percent, a margin narrow enough at that sample size to leave the race close. Polling released earlier this week in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, South Carolina and OH-1 has already been folded into the numbers above; none of it changed the shape of either chamber's estimate.