Senate control stays close in our model as three Maine polls find a tied race

Our model gives Democrats a 55 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate, and Republicans 45%. The model's average outcome is 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning control, with an average of 245.2 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. That House figure is somewhat firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it does not yet link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.1, built from 30 polls over a 45-day window. All figures are as of 6:32 AM ET on October 3.

The largest move in our model came in Minnesota, where the Democratic chance of winning the Senate seat fell 25.1 points, from 88% to 63%. In Texas, the Democratic chance rose from 56% to 64%. A New York Times/Siena survey of 615 likely voters, fielded September 21-30, had James Talarico at 50.8 percent and Ken Paxton at 45.1 percent. In Ohio, the Democratic chance now stands at 71%, up from 65%. Our South Carolina Senate estimate for the Democrat rose from 10% to 16%.

Three new polls of Maine's Senate race all find it close. A YouGov survey for CBS News of 1,136 likely voters, fielded September 23 to October 1, had Susan Collins and Troy Jackson tied at 50 percent each. A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,091 likely voters, fielded September 29 to October 1, had Jackson at 46.2 percent and Collins at 45.9 percent. A Wedgewood Polls survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 27 to October 1, had Jackson at 52 percent and Collins at 48 percent.

In Kansas, a Trafalgar Group survey of 1,095 likely voters, fielded September 29 to October 1, found the Senate race close, with Adam Hamilton at 44.4 percent and Roger Marshall at 43.5 percent.

In the House, the Democratic chance in VA-1 rose in our model from 41% to 48%, and in WA-3 it fell from 95% to 90%. In SC-1, a co/efficient survey of 837 likely voters, fielded September 30 to October 1, had Republican Jenny Costa Honeycutt at 46 percent and Democrat Nancy Lacore at 40 percent. The election is 31 days away.