Our model puts Democrats at 58% for the Senate as the Texas race tightens

Our model gives Democrats a 58 in 100 chance of winning Senate control, against 42% for Republicans, as of 6:32 a.m. ET on September 29. Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our model's average outcome is 50.9 Democratic seats, just short of the Democratic threshold. The election is 35 days away.

In the House, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning control, with an average of 245.5 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. Our simulation correlates polling error nationally, by census division, by state and by district. It does not yet correlate error among demographically similar districts in different parts of the country, because we lack the data for that term. The House figure is therefore somewhat firmer than it would be with that term included.

Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.2, drawn from 28 polls over a 45-day window. The largest recent entry, a Morning Consult survey of 18,786 likely voters fielded September 21-27, had Democrats at 50.27% and Republicans at 42.81%.

The largest move among Senate races came in Texas, where our model's Democratic win probability fell from 69% to 55%. A Stratus Intelligence poll of 865 likely voters, fielded September 22-24 and sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority, found Ken Paxton and James Talarico tied at 48%. A Big Data Poll survey sponsored by the Public Polling Project, fielded September 24-26, had Talarico at 46.8% and Paxton at 44.9% among 698 likely voters, and Talarico at 46.4% to 43.8% among 793 registered voters. The race is close in both. Elsewhere, our model moved Minnesota from 81% to 91% for Democrats and Kansas from 19% to 27%.

A Trafalgar Group poll of 1,090 likely voters in New Hampshire, fielded September 26-27, had Democrat Chris Pappas at 47.4% and the Republican at 40.5%. A Trafalgar survey of 1,087 likely voters in South Carolina, fielded September 23-25, found a close race, with the Republican at 43.4% and Democrat Annie Andrews at 42.3%. In Montana, an American Pulse Research & Polling survey of 604 likely voters for NonStop Local, fielded September 19-24, had Republican Kurt Alme at 45.1%, independent Seth Bodnar at 26.1% and Democrat Alani Bankhead at 18.9%. In Ohio's 15th District, a Hart Research Associates poll of 500 likely voters for House Majority PAC, fielded September 22-24, found Democrat Don Leonard at 46% and Republican Mike Carey at 45%, a close race.