Ossoff ahead in three Georgia polls as Texas and Kansas shift in our Senate model

Our model gives Democrats a 55 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans a 44 percent chance, as of 6:32 AM ET on September 27. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 50.8 Democratic seats, just short of the Democratic threshold, which is why the chamber remains close to even in our estimate.

The House is less close. Our model gives Democrats a 98 in 100 chance of winning a majority, with an average of 245.7 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. Republicans are at 1 percent. That figure is somewhat firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it does not link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.3, drawn from 28 polls over a 45-day window.

Several Senate races moved in our model. Texas fell from a 71 percent Democratic win probability to 56 percent. Minnesota rose from 75 percent to 89 percent. Kansas rose from 21 percent to 32 percent, and Georgia from 85 percent to 93 percent. Iowa, at 62 percent, and Florida, at 18 percent, are unchanged from the figures reported in yesterday's brief.

Georgia had three new polls. An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, found Jon Ossoff at 50 percent and Mike Collins at 42 percent. Big Data Poll, fielded September 21-23, found Ossoff ahead 51.0 percent to 40.1 percent among 712 registered voters and 55.4 percent to 44.6 percent among 678 likely voters.

Elsewhere, the polling was closer. Quantus Insights, surveying 695 likely voters September 21-23, found Sherrod Brown at 47.6 percent and Jon Husted at 47.2 percent in Ohio in a two-way question, and 47.3 percent to 46.8 percent in a version with other candidates. In Kansas, a Wedgewood Polls survey of 500 likely voters, fielded September 22-24, had Adam Hamilton at 50 percent and Roger Marshall at 48 percent, a close race. In Michigan, Big Data Poll, sponsored by the Public Polling Project and fielded September 22-24, found Abdul El-Sayed at 46.7 percent and Mike Rogers at 42.1 percent among 678 likely voters, and 45.4 percent to 41.0 percent among 725 registered voters.