Democrats at 55 percent for the Senate as Iowa and Florida move in opposite directions

Our model gives Democrats a 55 in 100 chance of winning control of the Senate and Republicans a 44% chance, as of 6:32 a.m. ET on September 26, 38 days before the election. Democrats need 51 seats for control. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 50.8 Democratic seats, just short of the Democratic threshold.

In the House, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a majority and Republicans 2%, with an average of 245.7 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. Our simulation links polling error nationally, within each census division, within each state and within each district. It does not link demographically similar districts in different places, because we lack the data to do so. That makes our House probability slightly more confident than it would otherwise be. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.2, built from 28 polls over a 45-day window.

Several Senate races moved in our model. Iowa went from a 42% Democratic chance to 60%. Florida went the other way, from 37% to 18%. Minnesota rose from 73% to 88%, and Kansas from 23% to 35%. Texas fell from 72% to 56%. Georgia now stands at 93%, up from 85%.

New Georgia polls show Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins. An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters, fielded September 22-23, has Ossoff at 50% and Collins at 42%. A Big Data Poll survey fielded September 21-23 has Ossoff at 55.4% and Collins at 44.6% among 678 likely voters. Among 712 registered voters it has Ossoff at 51.0% and Collins at 40.1%.

Ohio polling shows a close race. A Quantus Insights survey of 695 likely voters, fielded September 21-23, has Sherrod Brown at 47.3% and Jon Husted at 46.8%, with 2.0% independent and 1.2% other. Its head-to-head version has Brown at 47.6% and Husted at 47.2%. Kansas is also close in a Wedgewood Polls survey of 500 likely voters, fielded September 22-24. It has Adam Hamilton at 50% and Roger Marshall at 48%. In Texas, a Slingshot Strategies survey of 1,007 likely voters, sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research and fielded September 19-22, has James Talarico at 49% and Ken Paxton at 44%. That result comes as our Texas estimate has fallen. On the generic ballot, a McLaughlin & Associates survey of 1,000 likely voters, fielded September 16-22, has Democrats at 48% and Republicans at 43%.