Our model gives Democrats 93 percent in the House, 41 in the Senate

With 55 days to the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning a House majority, against 7 percent for Republicans. The mean Democratic outcome in our simulations is 238.8 seats; 218 are needed for control. The Senate runs the other way. Our numbers as of 6:32 AM ET Wednesday put the Democratic chance of Senate control at 41 percent and the Republican chance at 58 percent, with a mean of 49.8 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans.

Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.1, drawn from 24 polls over the past 45 days. The largest recent survey is from Morning Consult, which polled 29,427 registered voters from August 31 to September 6 and found Democrats at 46.3 percent and Republicans at 42.2 percent. Focaldata, polling for the Financial Times from August 28 to September 2, released three versions of the same question: Democrats led by 51.98 to 44.92 among 1,837 likely voters, by 48.72 to 42.26 among 1,914 registered voters, and by 46.33 to 40.55 among 2,180 adults.

The day's movement was concentrated in Senate races and ran toward Republicans. Ohio moved 12.9 points of Democratic win probability, from 52 percent to 39 percent. Kansas fell from 15 percent to 4 percent, and Iowa from 39 percent to 31 percent. Texas remains the stronger of that group for Democrats but slipped from 67 percent to 60 percent. Maine moved 5.2 points the other way, from 86 percent to 91 percent. In the House, CA-48 rose from 16 percent to 22 percent.

Recent race-level polling is mostly close. In Iowa, an Emerson College survey for Nexstar of 750 likely voters, fielded August 31 to September 1, put Republican Ashley Hinson at 49.5 percent and Democrat Josh Turek at 45.1 percent, with 0.8 percent for other candidates. In NY-21, Impact Research polled 500 likely voters from August 30 to September 2 and found Republican Anthony Constantino at 47 percent and Democrat Blake Gendebien at 44 percent. SurveyUSA, polling 522 likely voters in CA-48 for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune from August 27 to September 1, had Democrat Marni von Wilpert at 45 percent and Republican Jim Desmond at 42 percent. In TX-35, Normington, Petts & Associates, polling likely voters for House Majority PAC from August 27 to 31, found Republican Carlos De La Cruz at 45 percent and Democrat Johnny Garcia at 44 percent.

One note on the House figures. Our simulation draws error at four correlated levels: national, census division, state and individual district. It does not include a term linking demographically similar districts in different places, because we have no cluster data for it. That omission is ours, and it makes the House control probability marginally firmer than a fuller decomposition would leave it. We are not putting a number on the difference, because this run does not measure one.