Democrats at 93 in 100 for the House, 42% in the Senate with 56 days left

Fifty-six days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning House control and a 42% chance of a Senate majority. Republicans are at 6% in the House and 57% in the Senate. The mean outcome in our House simulations is 239 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for control. In the Senate the mean is 49.8 Democratic seats, short of the 51 Democrats need; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them.

Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.2, drawn from 24 polls fielded over the past 45 days. Recent national surveys cluster near that. Focaldata, for the Financial Times, fielded August 28 to September 2 and found Democrats ahead 51.98% to 44.92% among 1,837 likely voters, 48.72% to 42.26% among 1,914 registered voters, and 46.33% to 40.55% among 2,180 adults. YouGov, for the Economist, had Democrats at 46% to 40% among 1,434 registered voters and 36% to 31% among 1,589 adults, fielded August 28-31. Ipsos, for Reuters, over the same dates, showed 43% to 38% among 924 registered voters and 38% to 31% among 1,167 adults.

The largest single-day change in our Senate estimates is in New Mexico, where the Democratic win probability rose 8.7 points to 99%. Maine gained 5.5 points, to 91%. Iowa moved 7.7 points the other way, to 32%, extending a shift already in our numbers; an Emerson College poll for Nexstar, of 750 likely voters fielded August 31 to September 1, had Ashley Hinson at 49.47% and Josh Turek at 45.05%, with 0.76% for another candidate. Our Ohio and Kansas estimates also moved toward Republicans, to 40% and 4% respectively.

Among House districts, CA-48 moved 6.6 points toward the Democrat, to 23%. A SurveyUSA poll for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune, of 522 likely voters fielded August 27 to September 1, put Marni von Wilpert at 45% and Jim Desmond at 42%, a close result. Two other district polls are also tight: SEA Polling had Darren Soto and Dan Green tied at 41% in FL-9, from 400 likely voters fielded August 24-30, and Normington, Petts & Associates, polling for House Majority PAC, had Carlos De La Cruz at 45% and Johnny Garcia at 44% in TX-35 among likely voters fielded August 27-31. In New Hampshire, a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, of 600 likely voters fielded August 27-30, put Chris Pappas at 36%, with 1% for an independent and no Republican share in the released figures.

One caveat on the House side. Our simulation draws error at four correlated levels: national, census division, state and individual district. It does not yet include a term linking demographically similar districts wherever they sit, because we have no cluster data to build one. The effect is that our House control probability is marginally firmer than a fuller treatment would leave it. The size of that gap is not measured in this run.