An April poll of Mississippi puts Hyde-Smith three ahead, and our odds widen

An Impact Research survey for the SPLC Action Fund, fielded April 8-12 among 500 likely voters, found Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith at 42 percent, Democrat Scott Colom at 39 percent and independent Ty Pinkins at 6 percent. A three-point gap on a sample that size is a close result, not a measured lead.

The poll is four months old, and it entered our average after our previous run. Its effect on our forecast is mostly about spread rather than the center. Our model now gives Colom an 8 in 100 chance of winning the seat, up from 1 percent in the run completed at 4:03 PM ET on August 31. At the same time our mean projected margin moved slightly the other way, to R+16.2 from R+14.1. The difference is in the tails: our 5th-to-95th percentile range is now R+34.9 to D+2.4, against R+24.7 to R+3.4 before. Adding a survey this far from our other Mississippi numbers tells the model it knows less about the state than it thought, and a wider distribution puts more of it on Colom's side of zero even as the central estimate stays firmly Republican.

So the reading has not changed in substance. Our model still gives Hyde-Smith a 92 percent chance. What changed is our confidence in the size of the margin, and 8 percent is still a long shot.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 50 percent, with our mean Democratic seat count at 50.2. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. Our generic-ballot average stands at D+6.5 across 28 polls in the last 45 days. On that math, a Mississippi outcome in the far tail would matter; our model does not expect one.