Data for Progress finds Hyde-Smith up six in Mississippi, and our odds narrow

Two new Data for Progress surveys of the Mississippi Senate race, both of 1,018 likely voters fielded August 5-15, put Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith six points ahead of Democrat Scott Colom. The three-way version, which included independent Ty Pinkins, had Hyde-Smith at 44 percent, Colom at 38 and Pinkins at 7. The head-to-head version had Hyde-Smith at 47 and Colom at 41.

Our forecast now gives Hyde-Smith a 98 percent chance of winning the seat and Colom a 2 in 100 chance, with a mean margin of R+13.8. The prior run, at 4:30 p.m. ET on August 28, had Colom at 8 percent and a mean margin of R+16.2.

Those two changes point in opposite directions, and the second one dominates. The polls are closer than what our model had been projecting, so the expected margin moved toward Colom by more than two points. But they also gave the model something to anchor on, and the spread of outcomes narrowed sharply: our 5th-to-95th percentile range is now R+24.5 to R+3.1, against R+35.1 to D+2.8 before. The previous range included Democratic wins at the edge. This one does not. A tighter distribution around a still-double-digit Republican margin leaves less room for an upset, even as the central estimate improves for the Democrat.

The race remains a small part of the national picture. Our model gives Democrats a 44 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 56 percent, with a mean of 49.9 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes their way. Nothing in these two surveys changes the shape of that. Both are from the same pollster and the same field period, and they are the only new numbers here.