A close Change Research poll in Mississippi leaves our Senate forecast where it was
The PAC-sponsored survey has Hyde-Smith three points ahead of Colom, a narrower gap than even the tight end of our model's range.
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 23, 2026 at 4:02 PM EDT
Correction: the forecasts in this article predate a polling-data repair. Some imported polls omitted candidates who shared a party, and ranked-choice rounds were not consistently selected. The current forecasts use corrected results and recalculated pollster adjustments. See current forecasts.
A new Change Research survey of Mississippi's Senate race finds Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith at 43% and Democrat Scott Colom at 40%, with independent Ty Pinkins at 6%. The poll of 842 likely voters was fielded October 21-22 and sponsored by Government that Works PAC. A three-point gap in a single poll is a close race, not a clear lead.
Our forecast did not move in any meaningful way. Our model gives Colom a 1 in 100 chance of winning and Hyde-Smith 99%, the same as in the run earlier today. Our model's average margin went from R+12.2 to R+12.3. Its range of likely outcomes, from the 5th to the 95th percentile, now runs from R+20.4 to R+4.0, nearly identical to the R+20.5 to R+4.0 before this poll was added.
The Change Research result is tighter than the Republican end of that range. One survey, fielded over two days and paid for by a sponsor, carries limited weight against the rest of the evidence our model uses, and it did not shift the estimate.
Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 56% chance of winning Senate control, with an average of 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Mississippi remains one of the seats our model expects Republicans to win, and this poll did not change that.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- Change Research · Oct 22, 2026 · n=842 · Mississippi Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.