New Hampshire's 2nd District poll lands where our forecast already sat

A Saint Anselm College survey of 701 likely voters in New Hampshire's 2nd District, fielded August 17-18, put the Democrat at 50 percent and the Republican at 35 percent.

That is close to what our model was already carrying. Our forecast gives the Democrat a 93 in 100 chance in the district, with a mean margin of D+15.3. Both figures are unchanged from our previous run, at 6:30 p.m. ET on August 20. The only movement was at the edges of the distribution: our 5th-to-95th percentile band now runs from R+1.3 to D+32.2, against R+1.6 to D+32.0 before. The poll confirmed the existing picture rather than altering it.

The wide band is the part worth noting. Even with a double-digit polling margin and a 93 percent win probability, our simulations still include outcomes where the Republican wins narrowly. Seventy-five days remain before the November 3 election.

Nationally, our average of 25 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+6.7. Our model gives Democrats a 94 percent chance of winning House control, with a mean of 242.3 seats against the 218 needed. One caveat on that number is ours to own: our simulation draws correlated error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but we have no data to add a term linking demographically similar districts across state lines. Without it, our House control probability is marginally firmer than a fuller model would produce.

The Senate is a different matter. Our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 52 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes their way.