Two Democratic-sponsored polls show a close NE-1 race; our forecast is unchanged

Two new surveys of Nebraska's 1st District from Global Strategy Group, both sponsored by the Fight for Nebraska PAC, both of 600 likely voters fielded August 31 to September 3, show a close contest. One has Democrat Chris Backemeyer at 49 percent and Republican Rep. Mike Flood at 45 percent. The other has Backemeyer at 43 and Flood at 42. Neither poll's margin of error is given in the material we have, and at that sample size neither gap is wide enough to establish who is ahead.

Our forecast did not move. The model gives Backemeyer a 13 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Flood an 87 percent chance, with a mean margin of R+10.3 and a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from R+25.5 to D+4.8. Those are the same figures the model produced in its previous run, at 4:32 PM ET on September 16. The polls are the only new information here, and they were not enough to shift it.

Part of the reason is who paid for them. Both were commissioned by a PAC, and our model discounts partisan-sponsored surveys accordingly. The two results also disagree with each other by three points on Flood's share and six on Backemeyer's, which is consistent with different question wording within the same field period rather than with a single stable reading of the district.

Nationally, our average of 26 generic-ballot polls over the past 45 days stands at D+7.3. The model gives Democrats a 96 in 100 chance of winning a House majority, with a mean of 242.6 seats against the 218 needed. One caveat on that number is ours: our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it has no term linking demographically similar districts in different places, so the control probability is marginally firmer than a fuller accounting would leave it.