Montana poll puts Downing up 22, and our MT-2 forecast does not move

A Rutgers-Eagleton poll sponsored by Montana Free Press, fielded August 27 to September 7 among registered voters, gives Republican Rep. Troy Downing 48% and Democrat Brian Miller 26% in Montana's 2nd District. Nine percent went to an independent and 5% to another option, leaving a substantial share of the sample away from the two major-party candidates.

The survey did not change our assessment. Our model gives Downing a 99% chance of winning the seat and Miller a 1 in 100 chance, the same figures as our previous run at 10:32 a.m. ET on September 16. Our mean margin moved from R+22.3 to R+22.2. The 5th-to-95th-percentile range is now R+37.4 to R+6.9, a shade narrower than the R+37.5 to R+7.1 we had before. In a district our average already treated as safely Republican, a 22-point margin in a new poll is confirmation rather than new information.

The national picture is where the uncertainty sits. Our generic-ballot average, built from 25 polls over a 45-day window, stands at D+7.2. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 96% chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for control and Republicans 3%, with a mean of 242.4 Democratic seats. Our simulation draws correlated error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it does not include a term linking demographically similar districts across state lines, because we have no cluster data for it. That omission makes our House control number marginally firmer than a fuller model would produce.

The Senate remains close in our estimate: a 51% chance Democrats reach the 51 seats they need for control against 48% for Republicans, who need 50 because a 50-50 tie goes to them under a Republican vice president. Our mean is 50.4 Democratic seats. MT-2, on these numbers, is not among the races that will decide either chamber.