MT-1 poll finds Flint and Forstag within a point; Democrat's chance eases to 59%

A new poll of Montana's 1st District shows a race too close to separate. The American Pulse Research & Polling survey, sponsored by NonStop Local and fielded September 19-24 among 314 likely voters, puts Republican Aaron Flint at 45.9% and Democrat Sam Forstag at 45.4%. Nick Sheedy, running outside the two major parties, takes 5.4%. A half-point gap in a sample that size is not a lead for either candidate.

The poll moved our forecast modestly toward Flint. Our model now gives Forstag a 59 in 100 chance of winning the seat, down from 62% in the run completed at 3:02 PM ET today. Flint's chance rises to 41% from 38%. Our projected margin narrows to D+2.0 from D+2.8.

The shift is small, and it does not change the basic picture. Forstag remains a slight favorite in our model, but the range of plausible outcomes is wide. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+12.3 to D+16.3, compared with R+11.5 to D+17.3 before this poll. Either candidate winning by a comfortable margin sits well inside that band.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, with an average of 245.5 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. That figure is slightly more confident than it should be. Our simulation links errors nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it does not link demographically similar districts in different regions, because we lack the data to do so. A district like MT-1, where the outcome is near even, matters more to the national count when the national picture is closer than our model suggests.