New MN-2 poll shows Little up 12, and our forecast does not move

One new survey in Minnesota's 2nd District has Democrat Matt Little at 52 percent and Republican Eric Pratt at 40 percent. Impact Research fielded it September 9-13 among 500 likely voters.

Our forecast did not change. As of our 12:02 PM ET run on September 24, the model gives Little a 100 in 100 chance of winning the seat and a mean margin of D+24.4, with a 5th-to-95th percentile range of D+9.8 to D+39.1. The prior run, at 10:32 AM ET, had the same win probability and the same mean margin, with a range of D+9.8 to D+39.0. The new number is confirmation, not new information.

The poll's 12-point margin is narrower than our mean, but it sits inside the model's range and close to its lower bound. That is the gap a single 500-voter sample can leave without shifting a district projection built on more than one input. Neither candidate is an incumbent, and the model still treats the district as safely Democratic.

Nationally, our average of 30 generic-ballot polls over the last 45 days stands at D+8.3. Our model gives Democrats a 98 percent chance of winning a House majority, with a mean of 245.9 seats against the 218 needed for control, and a 52 in 100 chance of a Senate majority, where Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50 because a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans with a Republican vice president.

One caveat on the House figure is ours. Our simulation correlates error nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but we have no cluster data to correlate demographically similar districts across state lines. Without that term, the 98 percent is marginally firmer than a fuller model would make it.