Democrats hold a 7.6-point generic ballot average with 42 days to go

Forty-two days from the November 3 election, our average of the generic congressional ballot stands at D+7.6, drawn from 28 polls fielded over the past 45 days. The numbers below are as of 6:32 AM ET on September 22.

The Senate is close to even in our model. It gives Democrats a 54 in 100 chance of winning a majority and Republicans 45 percent, with a mean projected outcome of 50.6 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. The House is far less competitive on our numbers: a 97 percent chance of a Democratic majority against 2 percent for Republicans, with a mean of 243.6 Democratic seats against the 218 needed. One caveat is ours to own. Our simulation draws correlated error nationally, by census division, by state and district by district, but has no data to correlate demographically similar districts scattered across different regions. Without that term, the House control probability is marginally firmer than a fuller model would make it.

The week's largest Senate movement came in Minnesota, where our estimate of the Democratic win probability fell 11.8 points to 81 percent, from 92 percent. Kansas moved 11.0 points the other way, to 19 percent from 9 percent, and North Carolina rose 9.0 points to 93 percent. Ohio moved 3.1 points to 63 percent. In the House, our NY-17 estimate rose 3.1 points to 66 percent. Iowa also moved double digits toward the Democrat, a shift we covered separately.

Recent state polling has been mixed. In Iowa, a Marist University survey of 1,050 registered voters fielded September 17-20 put Democrat Josh Turek at 50 percent and Republican Ashley Hinson at 42 percent, while a Trafalgar Group poll of 1,089 likely voters fielded September 16-18 had Hinson at 44.0 percent and Turek at 42.1 percent, a close result. Texas polling is similarly tight: the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center surveyed 1,800 likely voters September 15-19 and found James Talarico at 47 percent and Ken Paxton at 46 percent. In New Hampshire, an InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters fielded September 16-18 put Democrat Chris Pappas at 48 percent and the Republican at 40 percent. In VA-1, a DCCC Targeting Team survey of 519 likely voters fielded September 15-17 showed Republican Rob Wittman at 47 percent and Democrat Shannon Taylor at 46 percent.

National surveys in the field over the same days cluster around the average. Morning Consult, polling 18,336 likely voters September 14-20, had Democrats at 49.74 percent and Republicans at 42.62 percent. Quantus Insights, with 1,389 likely voters September 15-18, had 50.3 to 41.7. John Zogby Strategies had 48 to 42 among 1,007 likely voters September 15-17. Reuters/Ipsos, surveying 979 registered voters September 17-20, had 43 to 35.