Remington poll shows a close MO-2 race and leaves our forecast where it was

A Remington survey of 565 likely voters in Missouri's 2nd District, fielded September 14-15, found Republican incumbent Ann Wagner at 43% and Democrat Fred Wellman at 42%. A one-point gap in a sample that size is well within the range of ordinary polling error. The poll describes a close race, not a Wagner lead.

Our forecast did not move. Our model gives Wellman a 45 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Wagner 55%, the same as in our run from 12:32 PM ET today. Our projected margin is unchanged at R+1.1. The spread of outcomes tightened slightly: our 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+15.6 to D+13.5, compared with R+15.8 to D+13.4 before this poll entered.

The new survey confirms what the model already showed. Its one-point Republican margin sits almost exactly on our projected margin, so it adds weight to the existing estimate rather than shifting it. The width of our range reflects how much uncertainty remains in a district this close.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority, with an average of 245.7 Democratic seats against the 218 needed for control. Our generic ballot average stands at D+8.2 across 30 polls from the past 45 days. That House probability is somewhat firmer than it should be. Our simulation correlates errors nationally, by census division, by state and within each district, but it does not link demographically similar districts in different parts of the country, because we lack the data to do so. A miss shared across similar suburban seats would therefore be spread less evenly in our simulations than it might be in reality.