A tied poll in AL-2 leaves our forecast where it was

The only new number in Alabama's 2nd District has the race even. A Tulchin Research survey of likely voters, sponsored by House Majority PAC and fielded August 24-31, put Republican Rhett Marques at 47 percent and Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures at 47 percent. No margin of error was reported with the result.

Our forecast did not move. The model gives Figures a 97 in 100 chance of winning the seat and Marques a 3 percent chance, with a mean margin of D+18.1. Those are the same figures our previous run produced earlier on September 9. The model's 5th-to-95th percentile range for the margin runs from D+2.5 to D+33.8, which places a tie outside the span of outcomes it treats as likely. One partisan-sponsored survey, taken more than a week before publication, was not enough to shift the district estimate.

The wider picture is unchanged as well. Our generic-ballot average stands at D+6.3 across 24 polls from the past 45 days. In the House, where 218 seats are needed for control, our model gives Democrats a 94 percent chance of a majority and a mean of 239.6 seats. That probability is drawn from error at four correlated levels — national, census division, state and district. We do not have the data to add a term linking demographically similar districts across state lines, so our House number is marginally firmer than a fuller model would make it.

In the Senate, where Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans 50 because a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans under a Republican vice president, our model gives Democrats a 42 in 100 chance of control and a mean of 49.9 seats.