Two Cole Hargrave polls put Hern above 20 points in Oklahoma

Two new surveys of the Oklahoma Senate race from Cole Hargrave, each of 500 registered voters fielded August 3-6, put Republican Kevin Hern well clear of the unnamed Democrat. One has Hern at 48 percent to 27 percent for the Democrat, with 5 percent for an independent and 2 percent for other candidates. The second has Hern at 49 percent to 25 percent, with 1 percent independent and 3 percent other. The gaps are 21 and 24 points.

Our forecast did not move in any meaningful way. It gives Hern a 99 percent chance and the Democrat a 1 in 100 chance, with a mean margin of R+28.7 and a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from R+47.6 to R+10.0. The previous run, from earlier the same afternoon, had the mean margin at R+28.5 over a nearly identical range. Both Cole Hargrave polls land inside that range, though on the closer side of the mean.

This is an open seat. Republican Alan S. Armstrong is the incumbent and is not among the candidates in the race as we have it; Hern is the only named candidate in the polling.

Nationally, our average on the generic ballot is D+6.5 across 28 polls fielded in the past 45 days. That has not translated into a competitive Senate map. Our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 50 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Oklahoma is not among the seats that decide that question in our simulations, and these two polls do nothing to change where it sits.