Kentucky Senate polling shows Barr ahead of Booker; our forecast is unmoved

Three new entries in our Kentucky Senate database all come from the same Public Policy Polling survey of 650 registered voters, fielded December 18-19, 2025. In the named matchup, Republican Andy Barr led Democrat Charles Booker 49 percent to 38 percent. Tested against an unnamed Republican, Booker trailed 46 to 39 in one version and was within a point, 41 to 40, in another.

None of that changed our numbers. Our model gives Barr a 98 percent chance of winning the seat and Booker a 2 in 100 chance, the same split as our previous run earlier the same afternoon. The mean margin moved from R+23.2 to R+23.3. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range now runs from R+42.2 to R+4.3, a hair wider at both ends than before.

The gap between the poll and our projected margin is worth stating plainly. Barr's 11-point edge in the named test is well inside our range but below our central estimate, and the survey was in the field more than eight months ago, which limits how much weight it carries this close to November 3. The generic-Republican versions bracket a wide space: one of them puts the race close, the other does not. Our average leans on the state's broader partisan pattern rather than on any single set of December numbers.

This is an open seat; the incumbent is Republican Mitch McConnell. Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 49 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 50 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to Republicans. Kentucky, on these numbers, is not one of the seats deciding that.