Arkansas forecast moves off zero after Hendrix College poll

A Hendrix College survey of 1,217 likely voters in Arkansas, fielded August 11-12, put Democrat Hallie Shoffner at 47 percent and Republican Sen. Tom Cotton at 44 percent. The poll reports no margin of error in what we have, so the three-point gap is best read as a close result rather than a lead.

Our model has now absorbed it. It gives Cotton a 94 percent chance and Shoffner a 6 in 100 chance, with a mean margin of R+10.3 and a 5th-to-95th percentile range running from R+21.2 to D+0.8. Our previous run, at 8:30 p.m. ET on August 19, had Cotton at essentially 100 percent, a mean margin of R+19.9 and a range from R+31.1 to R+8.9.

That is the change since our last piece on this race, which noted a trimmed projected margin and unchanged odds. The odds have now moved as well, from effectively nil to small, and the projected margin has come down by close to ten points. The distribution still sits almost entirely on the Republican side: even the favorable tail of our range stops at a margin under one point for Shoffner.

One poll, in a single state, does not move the national picture much. Our model gives Democrats a 48 percent chance of Senate control and Republicans 52 percent, with a mean of 50.2 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes their way. Our generic-ballot average, drawn from 25 polls over the past 45 days, stands at D+6.7. In the House, our model gives Democrats a 94 percent chance of reaching the 218 seats needed for control.