RMG Research poll puts Moore up 21 in Alabama, in line with our forecast
The new survey lands almost exactly on our model's projected margin, and the race's outlook is unchanged from the morning run.
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5 · October 1, 2026 at 11:02 AM EDT
Republican Barry Moore leads Democrat Everett Wess 54% to 33% in an RMG Research survey of 800 registered voters, fielded September 21-25 and sponsored by Alabama Policy Action and Napolitan News Service. That 21-point gap sits close to what our model already expected for this open Senate seat.
After adding the poll, our model projects Moore to win by an average of 21.3 points, compared with 21.2 points in the run earlier this morning. The range of outcomes our model considers plausible did not change. It runs from R+30.4 at the 5th percentile to R+12.0 at the 95th. Our model gives Wess a 0 in 100 chance of winning, the same as before.
The new poll confirms the existing picture rather than changing it. Even the Democratic end of our model's range leaves Moore ahead by double digits.
The result matters more for the national arithmetic than for the race itself. Our model gives Democrats a 52% chance of winning Senate control and projects them to win 50.5 seats on average. They need 51 seats for a majority, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to Republicans. Our model counts Alabama as a Republican seat in that math.
Polls this dispatch was written from
- RMG Research · Sep 25, 2026 · n=800 · Alabama Senate
Every constant behind these numbers is on the methodology page.
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