Catawba College poll, fielded early September, has Cooper up 11 in North Carolina

A YouGov survey for the Catawba College Center for N.C. Politics & Public Service finds Democrat Roy Cooper at 48 percent and Republican Michael Whatley at 37 percent in North Carolina's open Senate race. The poll interviewed 885 likely voters and was fielded September 4-15, so it describes the race as it stood two weeks ago rather than this week.

The result did not change our forecast. Our model gives Cooper a 94 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in the run completed earlier this morning. Our projected margin is still D+8.9. The only movement was at the edge of the range: our 5th-to-95th percentile span now runs from R+0.3 to D+18.2, compared with D+18.1 before.

The poll's 11-point gap is larger than our projected margin, but it adds little new information. Our model was already treating Cooper as a clear favorite. The survey also shows 15 percent of respondents backing neither named candidate, which leaves room for both totals to rise before November 3. Whatley's 6 percent chance in our model reflects that room.

The race matters for the chamber as a whole. Our model gives Democrats a 53% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 46%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model's average outcome is 50.6 Democratic seats, which puts North Carolina among the seats Democrats would need to reach that threshold.