Braun poll shows a smaller Balint lead, and our VT-1 margin estimate drops by nine

A Braun Research survey for Vermont Public Radio, fielded September 10-21, finds Democrat Becca Balint ahead of Republican Gerald Malloy in VT-1, though by less than our model had projected. Among 732 likely voters, Balint takes 46.92 percent to Malloy's 30.25 percent, a gap of about 17 points. Among the full sample of 817 adults, the figures are 43.28 percent and 28.3 percent, a gap of about 15 points. A large share of respondents in both samples chose neither major-party candidate.

The poll did not change who our model favors. It did change the size of the expected win. Our model gives Balint, the incumbent, a 100 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in our 8:32 AM ET run earlier today. That figure is rounded. It is not a certainty. Her projected margin fell from D+43.5 to D+34.4. The model's 5th-to-95th percentile range moved from D+29.1 to D+57.8 down to D+20.0 to D+48.7.

The drop comes from the gap between this survey and the model's earlier estimate. Both samples show Balint's lead well short of the margins our model had projected, and both leave many voters outside either column. Even the low end of the revised range has Balint winning by 20 points.

Nationally, our model gives Democrats a 98% chance of winning a House majority of at least 218 seats, with a mean of 245.7 Democratic seats. That number is somewhat firmer than it should be. Our simulation does not correlate errors across demographically similar districts in different states, because we have no data to build that link.