AARP poll puts Cooper up 11 in North Carolina; our forecast holds at 94 percent

A new poll of the North Carolina Senate race shows Democrat Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley. The survey, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for AARP among 1,115 likely voters and fielded September 17-20, has Cooper at 53% and Whatley at 42%, an 11-point margin.

The poll confirms our forecast rather than changing it. Our model still gives Cooper a 94 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same as in our run earlier this morning, and gives Whatley 6%. The new poll moved our projected margin slightly, from D+8.7 to D+8.9. Our range of likely outcomes shifted with it. Our model now puts the 5th-to-95th percentile at R+0.4 to D+18.3, compared with R+0.7 to D+18.0 before. The Republican end of that range still sits just past an even race, which is why the Democrat's chance stays short of certain.

The seat is open. Republican Thom Tillis is the incumbent and is not on the ballot.

The race feeds into our national Senate picture, where our model gives Democrats a 54% chance of winning control and Republicans 45%. Democrats need 51 seats for a majority. Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our model projects Democrats to win 50.7 seats on average, which leaves control close with 36 days until the November 3 election.