Cooper leads by double digits in three Elon University polls

Three new surveys of the North Carolina Senate race, all conducted by YouGov for Elon University and fielded August 21-31, put Democrat Roy Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley. Among 565 likely voters, Cooper led 49 percent to 38 percent. Among 677 registered voters, it was 49 to 36. Among 800 adults, the split was 39 to 29, with a larger share undecided. Other candidates drew 1 to 2 percent across the three samples.

Our model now gives Cooper an 81 in 100 chance of winning the seat, with a mean margin of D+5.3. That is up from 76 percent and D+4.3 in the run finished at 6:32 AM ET today, before these numbers were added. The change is modest and in the direction the polling pointed. Our 5th-to-95th percentile range runs from R+4.7 to D+15.4, so outcomes on both sides of the line remain well inside the distribution.

The practical effect is to reverse the small downward move we noted on August 31, when the model trimmed Cooper's edge to 80 percent. The three Elon surveys are consistent with each other and with a race in which Cooper is favored but not close to certain. The polls tell the same story at three different levels of voter screening, which is part of why they moved the number so little.

North Carolina is an open seat; the incumbent is Republican Thom Tillis. It matters for the wider picture because our Senate math is tight without much room for error. We give Democrats a 42 percent chance of winning Senate control, with a mean of 49.8 seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. Our national generic-ballot average stands at D+6.3 across 24 polls.