Trafalgar has Pappas up about seven in New Hampshire, and our forecast stays at 88

A Trafalgar Group survey of 1,090 likely voters, fielded September 26-27, puts Democrat Chris Pappas at 47.4% and Republican Scott Brown at 40.5%, with 1.1% choosing another option. That is a Pappas edge of about seven points in that poll.

Our forecast did not move on it. Our model gives Pappas an 88 in 100 chance of winning the seat, the same figure as our 6:32 AM ET run today. Brown's chance stays at 12%. Our projected margin slipped by a tenth of a point, from D+11.9 to D+11.8.

The Trafalgar margin sits below our model's central estimate but well inside its range. Our 5th-to-95th percentile band runs from R+4.7 to D+28.5, so a seven-point Pappas lead is consistent with what the model already expected. The poll confirms the shape of the race rather than changing it.

The seat matters for the chamber. Our model gives Democrats a 54% chance of winning Senate control and Republicans 45%, with an average of 50.7 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control; Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to them. New Hampshire is one of the seats our model counts on the Democratic side more often than not, and this poll does not alter that.