Democrats at 93 in 100 for the House, 43% in the Senate with 57 days left

Fifty-seven days from the November 3 election, our model gives Democrats a 93 in 100 chance of winning a House majority and Republicans a 7% chance. The mean Democratic seat count is 239.1, against the 218 needed for control. In the Senate, our numbers as of 6:32 AM ET Monday put Democratic chances of a majority at 43% and Republican chances at 56%, with a mean of 49.9 Democratic seats. Democrats need 51 seats for control and Republicans need 50, because the vice president is a Republican and a 50-50 tie goes to the Republicans. The Senate figure is a point lower than our estimate on Sunday.

Our generic ballot average stands at D+6.2, drawn from 24 polls fielded in the last 45 days. Several of them arrived over the past week. A Focaldata survey for the Financial Times, fielded August 28 to September 2, had Democrats ahead 51.98% to 44.92% among 1,837 likely voters, 48.72% to 42.26% among 1,914 registered voters, and 46.33% to 40.55% among 2,180 adults. YouGov, polling for the Economist from August 28 to 31, had Democrats up 46% to 40% among 1,434 registered voters and 36% to 31% among 1,589 adults. Ipsos, for Reuters over the same dates, had Democrats at 43% to 38% among 924 registered voters and 38% to 31% among 1,167 adults, with 3% for other candidates.

The largest movement in our Senate estimates over the past day was in New Hampshire, where the Democratic win probability fell to 81% from 91%, and in Virginia, where it fell to 90% from 99%. South Carolina moved to 7% from 16%. In the House, TX-15 moved to a 35% Democratic win probability from 51%. Iowa's Senate race and OH-7, both of which we wrote about Sunday, remain the week's two biggest single-race shifts at 33% and 29% respectively.

Recent district and state polling is concentrated in close races. An Emerson College survey for Nexstar of 750 Iowa likely voters, fielded August 31 to September 1, recorded Ashley Hinson at 49.47% and Josh Turek at 45.05%, with 0.76% for others. SurveyUSA, polling 522 likely voters in CA-48 for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune from August 27 to September 1, put Marni von Wilpert at 45% and Jim Desmond at 42%. SEA Polling found Darren Soto and Dan Green tied at 41% among 400 likely voters in FL-9, fielded August 24 to 30. In TX-35, Normington, Petts & Associates, polling for House Majority PAC from August 27 to 31, had Republican Carlos De La Cruz at 45% and Democrat Johnny Garcia at 44%. A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll of 600 New Hampshire likely voters for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, fielded August 27 to 30, listed Chris Pappas at 36% and reported no figure for a Republican candidate.

One caveat on the House number. Our simulation draws error nationally, by census division, by state and by district, but it does not include a term linking demographically similar districts in different places, because we have no cluster data for this run. That omission makes our 93% marginally firmer than a fuller model would produce. We cannot say by how much, so we are not offering an adjusted figure.