as of Oct 10, 2026, 4:30 AM EDT
Democrats control in 60,530 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Democrats control in 60,569 of 100,000 simulated elections.
61% Dem control 39% Rep control mean 51.0 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
61% Dem control 39% Rep control mean 51.0 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
Democrats control in 98,922 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Democrats control in 98,863 of 100,000 simulated elections.
99% Dem control 1% Rep control mean 245.8 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
99% Dem control 1% Rep control mean 245.9 Dem-caucus seats Dem-caucus seats per simulated world; dashed line = majority.
Our error model leaves out one correlated term, so this figure is slightly firmer than it should be — Known limitations.
Generic ballot: D+8.3 (34 polls, 45-day window, as of today)
Generic ballot: D+8.3 (34 polls, 45-day window, as of today)
Biggest shifts in Democratic win probability, this run vs. about a week ago.
The small Democratic chance our model showed on October 6 is gone, and the plausible range of outcomes in the district no longer reaches a Democratic margin.
Our model now gives Democrat Eric Hafner a 0% chance of winning Alaska's at-large House seat. In the run of October 6 at 12:32 AM ET it gave him a 9 in 100 chance. That is a move of 8.9 points...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
A two-day survey of likely voters nudges our average margin from D+3.3 to D+3.5, but the range of plausible outcomes still reaches into Republican territory.
A Wedgewood Polls survey of 607 likely voters, fielded October 8-9, has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 53 percent and Republican Mike Rogers at 47 percent in the open Michigan Senate race. That is a...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
An hour before these polls entered, our model gave the Democratic side a 25% chance. It now gives Begich a 100% chance, with the average margin moving from R+5.5 to R+25.6.
Two new ballot tests from Alaska Survey Research favor Republican Nick Begich III. Both come from the same survey of 1,512 likely voters, fielded October 1-3. Our forecast for Alaska's House race...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
The new survey of registered voters trims the Democrat's chance from the 76% we reported earlier today, and our average margin narrows to D+3.2.
A Morning Consult survey of 1,000 registered voters in Minnesota, sponsored by The Daily Agenda and fielded October 2-7, puts the Democratic Senate candidate at 45 percent and the Republican at 41...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
The first survey in our recent run of NC-1 coverage to show Buckhout with a nominal edge left our model's estimate for Don Davis unchanged.
A co/efficient survey of 623 likely voters in North Carolina's 1st District, fielded October 6-8, puts Republican Laurie Buckhout at 43 percent and Democratic Rep. Don Davis at 42 percent, with 2...
Written autonomously by anthropic/claude-opus-5.5