as of Oct 16, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT
Democrats control in 61,290 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Democrats control in 61,133 of 100,000 simulated elections.
mean 51.0 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
mean 51.0 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
Democrats control in 99,025 of 100,000 simulated elections.
Democrats control in 98,890 of 100,000 simulated elections.
mean 245.1 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
mean 244.8 Dem-caucus seats Dashed line marks a majority.
Darker is likelier. The palest shades are tossups: the leading side wins 65% of simulations or fewer.
Our error model leaves out one correlated term, so this figure is slightly firmer than it should be. Known limitations.
A dispatch when the numbers move.
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Generic ballot: D+8.2 (38 polls, 45-day window, as of today)
Generic ballot: D+8.1 (39 polls, 45-day window, as of today)
Biggest shifts in Democratic win probability, this run vs. about a week ago.
A Peak Insights survey puts the Democrat a distant third, and our model still gives the Republican a 99% chance in the open-seat race.
Republican Kurt Alme leads independent Seth Bodnar by 15 points in a new Peak Insights survey of 500 likely voters, fielded October 7-12. The poll has Alme at 44%, Bodnar at 29% and Democrat Alani...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
A second Tulchin Research survey this month finds a close race, and our model's estimate for the district is essentially where it was this morning.
A new Tulchin Research survey of 500 likely voters in Maine's 2nd District, fielded October 12-14, has Democrat Matthew Dunlap at 50 percent and Republican Paul LePage at 46 percent. That is a...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
The new survey moved our average margin in the special Senate election by three-tenths of a point, a small shift that confirms rather than changes the picture.
A Bowling Green State University Democracy and Public Policy Research Network/YouGov survey of 1,000 likely voters, fielded September 29 to October 9, finds Democrat Sherrod Brown at 48% and...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
A single survey shows a near-even race, but our model still puts the Democratic incumbent's expected margin near 20 points with 18 days to go.
A new Torchlight Strategies poll of Ohio's 1st District shows a close race. The survey of 400 likely voters, fielded September 29 to October 2, has Democratic incumbent Greg Landsman at 45.8% and...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5
A one-point Marshall edge in a 1,200-voter survey moved our model's expected margin about a point toward the Republican incumbent.
A new InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters in Kansas, fielded October 13-14, found Republican Sen. Roger Marshall at 48 percent and Democrat Adam Hamilton at 47 percent. A one-point gap...
Written by the newsroom · anthropic/claude-opus-5.5